Ag Outlook Seminar

Registration will be open through Dec. 13 for an annual University of Idaho Extension seminar featuring input cost analysis and supply, demand and price outlook presentations covering Idaho’s major commodities.

The 2024 Idaho Ag Outlook Seminar will be hosted Dec. 18 at the Hilton Garden Inn Boise Downtown, 348 S. 13th St., Boise. Those who are unable to attend in person may register to participate virtually. A $35 fee will be charged for both in-person and online participants, and lunch will be provided to those who attend in person.

Opening remarks will begin at 9 a.m., with the day’s final presentation ending at 4:15 p.m. Food producers, agency officials and others involved in Idaho agriculture use the seminar as an opportunity to brush up on trends and guide decisions about the upcoming growing season.

In prior years, UI Extension hosted separate seminars in Idaho Falls, Twin Falls, Nampa and Lewiston.

“Going to one event, it’s a lot easier for us to bring in high-caliber speakers and really focus on making it a high-quality event,” said Brett Wilder, a UI Extension agricultural economist and the seminar’s organizer.

Wilder has taken the lead on preparing a highly anticipated report on the state’s net farm income and gross crop revenues in 2024, called “The Financial Condition of Idaho Agriculture.” The state Legislature and the Idaho Tax Commission use the report’s data to help forecast revenue. Wilder will unveil the findings of his report, completed with assistance from agricultural economist Xiaoxue “Rita” Du, during the seminar.

“The thing that made me feel really good was how close we were last year — just a percentage off,” Wilder said.

Wilder projects farm profits for 2024 will be down significantly to their lowest point in at least three years. The report will show cash receipts for most crops have been lower while cost of production was relatively flat, leading many commodities to be less profitable. For example, prices of feed, including alfalfa and corn, are down, and a potato supplies glut led to a soft spud market, but the cost to produce those crops changed very little since a year ago. Livestock represents a bright spot. The beef market is especially strong, as the nation’s beef herd is now the smallest that it’s been in more than 60 years. Though gross revenue should be relatively flat for dairy producers, Wilder projects dairy profit margins will be greater this year because of lower feed prices.

“Dairies have an insurance product that pays based on margins, and last year for the first time ever, it paid every single month because margins were so terrible,” Wilder explained.

The seminar’s agenda also includes an Idaho agriculture policy outlook by Dexton Lake of Idaho Farm Bureau Federation; an analysis of national and global macroeconomic trends by AgWest Farm Credit’s Idaho President, Doug Robison; a water and weather outlook by National Weather Service Senior Hydrologist Troy Lindquist; a grains outlook by Area Extension Educator Colby Field; a report on input cost trends by Xiaoli Etienne, U of I associate professor and Idaho Wheat Commission endowed chair in commodity risk management; a hay outlook by UI Extension Educator Steve Hines; a potatoes outlook by UI Extension agricultural economist Patrick Hatzenbuehler; a report on other major crops including sugarbeets and onions by Colby Field; a beef outlook by Wilder and a dairy outlook by Dustin Winston, a commodity analyst with StoneX Group Inc.

Wilder is encouraging county UI Extension offices to host watch parties in which they livestream the event for local producers and others from outside of the Treasure Valley who wish to participate without traveling.

“It’s always less exciting to talk about things when it’s less rosy, but I think when we’re not at all-time highs it’s even more important to know where the market sits and what our opportunities are to maximize what we can get for our commodities,” Wilder said.

Published in Catching Up with CALS